Will You Live To Be 100?

9611 /www/nrich/html/content/id/9611/ 1 0000-00-00T00:00:00 <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?> <mdoxml version="1.0">How great a risk are you taking by: <ul> <li>travelling</li> <li>getting up in the morning</li> <li>etc, etc</li> </ul> <div>Useful links: <a href="http://plus.maths.org/content/os/issue55/features/risk/index">http://plus.maths.org/content/os/issue55/features/risk/index</a> <a href="http://www.deathriskrankings.com/MortStats.aspx">http://www.deathriskrankings.com/MortStats.aspx</a> <a href="http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/index.html">http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/index.html</a> Important: A micromort refers to the average risk across a population, not the risk to a particular individual, or a random person picked from the population. 1 micromort similar to chance of getting 20 heads in a row (1 in $2^{20}$) Is a probability of death an intrinsic property of a particular activity? Or is it a subjective judgement, based on currently available information? Maybe ... Which is the riskiest day?</div> <ul> <li>21 year-old, who gets up, rides a motorbike, goes skiing, drinks alcohol, smokes cigarettes</li> <li>10 year-old who gets up, walks to school, goes home again</li> <li>60 year-old who gets up, drives somewhere, ...</li> </ul> Then think about the risks for each if they limit their riskiest behaviour. Comparison with lottery (see end of Plus article) - - w<a href="/content/id/9611/WillYouLiveto100.pdf">orking on a game</a>, idea is students play the game, then evaluate it, which will require thinking through some of the calculations, and the role of chance. Good to have some health risks (eg. anaesthetic, smoking) compared with everyday risks. <div> </div></mdoxml> 2 3 0 0 1 1 0 Will You Live To Be 100? How does risk stack over a life-time? jag55 Probability - modelling approach jag55 work in progress