9534 /www/nrich/html/content/id/9534/ 10 2012-09-19T08:22:19 <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?> <mdoxml version="1.0"><br></br> <br></br> <a href="http://nrich.maths.org/8135"><br></br> <br></br> <span style="font-size: 12pt;">Problems ready for a simulation to be added</span></a><br></br> <br></br> <br></br> <br></br> <table style="width: 100%;border-spacing:1px;" border="1"> <tbody> <tr> <td>Cluster based on article</td> <td>Resource<br></br> ID</td> <td>Title</td> <td>Brief description of content</td> <td>Target</td> </tr> <tr> <td><a href="http://nrich.maths.org/9646">Conditional<br></br> probability</a><br></br> 9646</td> <td>9525</td> <td><a href="http://nrich.maths.org/9525">The dog ate my homework</a></td> <td>Conditional probability - models testing for presence of disease or DNA matching</td> <td>13-15, using tree diagrams and 2-way tables to record results and interpret them by considering expected results</td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td>16+, introduction to Bayes Theorem</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Tree diagrams - a complete set of mutually exclusive narratives<br></br>  </td> <td>9546</td> <td><a href="http://nrich.maths.org/9546">Which team will win?</a></td> <td>Introduction to probability trees (complete set of mutually exclusive narratives)</td> <td>11-13, introducing tree diagrams and 2-way tables, and using them to compare what happened experimentally with what we would expect to happen</td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td>13-15, combining probabilities, introducing the multiplicaton rule</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Developing a methodology for analysing problems - <a href="http://nrich.maths.org/9648">fractions and tree diagrams and introducing the multiplication rule</a><br></br> 9648</td> <td>9599</td> <td><a href="http://nrich.maths.org/9599">Luigi&#39;s Ice Cream Business</a></td> <td>Utility of money is non-linear, difference between one-off events and long-term performance, risk perceptions, rare events with potentially very high gains</td> <td>14-16, expectation, moving to using fractions on tree diagrams</td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td>9598</td> <td><a href="https://nrich.maths.org/9598">To insure or not to insure</a></td> <td>Do you look at the expected gain over time of buying/not buying insurance - or focus on the impact of a one-off event, which may not happen?</td> <td>13-16, investigating a mathematical model of expectation</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Micromorts/microlives</td> <td>9611</td> <td><a href="http://nrich.maths.org/9611">Will you live to be 100?</a></td> <td>Micromort per event x exposure per year, accumulated over a life-time<br></br> Difference between accidental (additive) and lifestyle (multiplicative)</td> <td>Game, aimed at 13-15 year-olds - play the game, then evaluate it.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Absolute and relative risks</td> <td>9600</td> <td><a href="http://nrich.maths.org/9600">Numbers in the news</a></td> <td>Use health pack for this</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Coincidences</td> <td> </td> <td>Collection of birthday problems</td> <td>Coincidences which are surprising to the subject, but are not surprising in the general population</td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Making predictions</td> <td> </td> <td>How good are the probabilities?</td> <td>Scoring predictions, weather forecasting, political forecasting</td> <td>Quiz - how confident are you that your answer is right?</td> </tr> <tr> <td><a href="http://nrich.maths.org/9649">Sampling</a><br></br> 9649</td> <td>9601</td> <td><a href="http://nrich.maths.org/9601">The Wisdom of the Crowds</a></td> <td>Estimating the number of sweets in a jar.</td> <td>12-14, use of averages, building up a histogram</td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td>9685</td> <td><a href="http://nrich.maths.org/9685">How Confident Are You?</a></td> <td>Wisdom of the Crowds revisited - using 90% probability estimates</td> <td>What does it mean to be 90% confident?</td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td>9609</td> <td><a href="http://nrich.maths.org/9609">Capture and Recapture</a></td> <td>Estimating the number of badgers in a wood.</td> <td>12-14, introduction to sampling techniques, proportional reasoning.</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Thinking through a logical argument, enumerating outcomes</td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td>Monty hall and Monty Hall revisited</td> <td> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br></br></mdoxml> 5 0 0 0 1 1 0 Footer for Modelling Probability work in progress - lists and resources